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Author Topic: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?  (Read 2320 times)

Offline snobdds

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2017, 10:32:27 pm »

Offline ffdjm

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2017, 01:36:29 am »
The trend to warmer winters is a fit topic for this forum. I just started my fifth decade in Fairbanks Alaska. Now I know that all that time I spent in the cold was a wonderful thing. I remember the time I drove dogs the first week in October. This winter the first serious snow storm was 29 December. The state government thinks anthropogenic global warming is a good thing. We do know that there were once dinosaurs in Alaska. If Alaska is headed for that warm a climate the boreal forest is doomed.

I am glad to have lived when I did.

Douglas

Online Moondog55

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2017, 01:34:39 am »
Sorry to see you go Woolley but  I would have thought we winter campers would be the last to deny anthropgenic warming. And you can stop cow farts, you simply vaccinate and inocculate  the cows against the methanogens in their gut, if you do this they actually eat less as a side benefit
Personally I am saddened but I give us all less than 50 years until extinction We passed the tipping point about 3 years ago
Of course all the rich people could leave and live at Prime 1 or 2 at the La Grange points if they start building quickly

Offline Soledad

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2017, 09:41:32 am »
The majority of Methane produced by cows does not come from farts.

Offline Undersky

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2017, 05:32:54 pm »
Discussions that include varied opinions are the best ones; otherwise we're just patting each other's backs and not getting anywhere.

Woolley, I too am sorry to see you go. While it's true that most people change their minds very slowly, I still believe that it is respectful and open conversations like these that give people the information with which they can keep, or change, their minds. We just need to keep from being personal or aggressive, and keep as open as we hope others will be when we are considering ideas that differ from our current beliefs. I wish this did not seem like backward step to you, Mike.

I'll read these posts carefully.

Sources are always important to note, as are timelines and the purposes of graphs.

In the reference you give, Snobdds, the graphic appears to be a John Deere interpretation of gov regulations and targets from 2012.

Do you think it represents actual measurements of particulates in 2017?

If this information does actually foretell a reduction in real emissions, then great! I am sure we all agree that emissions reductions can't hurt, and may help reduce the anthropogenic aspects of greenhouse induced climate change in our future. 

Offline snobdds

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2017, 06:00:46 pm »
John Deere has a huge stake, as do all makes of vehicles that have combustion engines, in the US marketplace.  The two most dangerous emissions and those that the EPA strictly enforces is CO2 and Particulate matter.  John Deere is subject to the same standards as Ford, Chevy, etc.  Tier 4 is the reality we live in today.

Just to prove how clean diesels and gas motors are these days, go run your finger at the end of a tail pipe of a new diesel.  There will be no soot at all.  Since 2014, engines and power plant emissions are producing a mere fraction of what they use to.  That is good.  However, what is done in the past is done.  We can't go back, only forward. 

Mother nature has been dealing with warming and cooling cycles for centuries, backed by actual data.  We should not put ourselves into a corner with a mind set that temperatures are only going to increase, because the data of the last decade or so has the earth cooling currently.  That is why the term global warming has been changed to climate change as the warming theory was not accurate.  Just remember, a constant global temperature and weather pattern is not necessarily a good thing.  Change is good...

Offline kinguq

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2017, 06:58:17 pm »
Well, I really wanted to leave this alone, because I don't think this topic is entirely relevant for this forum. Perhaps our moderator could weigh in on this. However, as I mentioned, I refuse to let statements like this stand unchallenged.

As far as I can tell, EPA Teir 4 standards apply to diesel engines only. Not only that, they apply to only stationary (e.g. power generation) and non-road (e.g. farm vehicles) applications of diesel engines. They do not apply to transport applications of diesel, the largest source of emissions, or to non-diesel engines at all. They regulate emissions of particulates and nitrogen oxides (NOx) primarily. As far as I can see, they do not regulate CO2 emissions at all. With such limited application and scope, I don't see how they are even relevant to the topic of climate change. A good description here https://www.empire-cat.com/uploadedFiles/Empire_Cat/Power_Systems/Emissions_Solutions/Empire_Tier4Mlr.pdf

It must be remembered that carbon emissions are entirely correlated to fuel consumption with internal combustion engines, because the fuel is largely composed of carbon. Therefore fuel efficiency standards serve largely to limit carbon emissions. I already provided a link to the EPA standards to limit carbon emissions, and here it is again:
https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/regulations-greenhouse-gas-emissions-passenger-cars-and

As I also mentioned, these standards will hardly result in any dramatic decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. And it is likely that even these will be abandoned by the current US government.

Regarding the comments about past variation in climate, no one disputes that climate has changed in the past. And here I must ask a question: Do you actually believe that climate scientists don't know this? That you are telling them something new? That they don't consider natural variation in climate models? Because if you do, you are wrong. I provided a number of references on this very topic in a previous post, and see no need to repeat them here since you obviously didn't look at them.

Regarding your claim that warming has paused, and that the climate is presently cooling, this is false. This claim is based on cherry-picked data and faulty statistical analysis. The so-called pause claim is largely the result of cherry picking your starting year. So, you might say that “the climate hasn’t warmed since 1998,” I can respond with, “the climate has warmed since 1999.” . Also it results from using only parts of the global temperature dataset. There is a detailed explanation of this here. https://thelogicofscience.com/2016/02/01/global-warming-hasnt-paused/ .  NASA says that 2016 was the warmest year on record.  It was the third record year in a row. Sixteen of 17 of the warmest years have occurred since 2001. Doesn't sound like cooling to me.  https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally




Offline rbinhood

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2017, 08:50:14 pm »
kinguq, you can save the science because people are going to believe what they want to believe. This is largely an emotion driven debate. Once a person's mind has been made up, they are unlikely to consider opposing points of view.

I believe the earth is warming due to man made influence. Like you, I read and study the science, and all of it concerns me. I think we are rushing towards a tipping point, and once we pass it, there will be a series of environmental collapses. Once that happens, it will be too late, yet all of the naysayers may still deny that man has destroyed the planet. Kind of like the Titanic sinking, there will be those left floating in the ocean, still arguing that the ship is unsinkable, even as they are dying from hypothermia and drowning.

In my opinion, this topic is relevant to this forum. We may see in our lifetimes a complete absence of Winter as we have come to know it. Without Winter, there will be no Wintertrekking. We may all do our own small part in avoiding this catastrophe. Then again, we may not. The choice is ours, and the debate is healthy, and ours to take up. If we ignore the obvious, and don't even talk about it in places like this, nothing will change.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2017, 10:58:18 pm by HOOP »

Offline snobdds

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2017, 09:05:12 pm »
Tier 4 emissions applies to any engine above 25 horsepower.  That's gas, diesel, over the road, off-road etc.  Carbon emissions is a catch all phrase , but the two big ones is co2 and particulate matter...and to a lesser extent nitrous oxide. 

All numbers should be viewed with skepticism, in fact John Deere says tier 4 reduces emissions by 99%.  The data I see puts it closer to 95%.  I don't typically use numbers to make a case because I can make any set of numbers work in my favor.  I think a theoretical discussion, in this context, keeps the debate civil. 

The point I'm making is, our historical view of carbon emissions being the problem still today, is no longer true.  Specifically for us in the us and Canada.  Our biggest problem now is methane gas, which after 30 years of research, has no solution in sight.   Methane is a natural byproduct of decomposition​, which has been happening since single cell organisms were formed, and we're still fine.  In the 80's, climate scientists had most convinced the seas would rise and displace 2/3 of Earth's population by now.  Amnesia of the past facts seems to not have a guiding principle on current reasoning. 

Online Moondog55

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2017, 09:22:15 pm »
We know about the methane, I was hoping tht the carbon debate would slow or stop overall global warming enough to stop the catastrophic release of billions of tonnes of trapped methane clathrate, it is the elephant in the room the scepticts refuse to talk about
In my lifetime I have seen the medaan snowline rise by 200 metres, another 200 metres and there will be no snow worth talking about here.
In the 100 years before I was born it rose only 100 metres from 1850 levels
When all that methane hits the atmosphere we have about 3 years left if we are lucky

Offline kinguq

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2017, 09:43:10 pm »
Snobdds, I don't know you or your level of expertise on this matter. Therefore, if you are going to convey what you contend to be factual information about Teir 4 or anything else, you are going to have to back it up with a reference, just as I have done. Otherwise I have nothing further to contribute.

Kinguq.

Offline snobdds

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2017, 10:04:27 pm »
Google isn't broken, the topic deserves more than a link.  Do yourself a favor and read up on it from a source you trust.   Otherwise we get into the weeds and that's never good.  Don't trust me, find out for yourself

Offline HOOP

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Re: Is the "New Reality" now here in the NE USA?
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2017, 10:54:36 pm »
Hi folks,
Great discussion on weather and climate, which affects the snow and ice we all love here at Wintertrekking.com.....but discussion is now drifting to national and international politics.   :)   Because we do not have an environmental or political forum here, the thread is now locked. 
My Youtube Channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/Wintertrekker

"I firmly believe that far from hurting the planet, the growing knowledge of Bushcraft is helping our natural world.  When we employ bushcraft skills, it may seem as though we are consuming natural resources.  But of course, the more we learn about the trees, the plants, the animals around us, the more we respect them.  The more we respect them, the more we cherish them, the more we nurture and take care of them.  That is the underlying principle of Bushcra